Potential Futures of Biological Invasions in South Africa

Abstract

Biological invasions are having a moderately negative impact on human livelihoods and the environment in South Africa, but the situation is worsening. Predicting future trends is fraught with many assumptions, so this chapter takes an outcome-orientated approach. We start by envisaging four scenarios for how biological invasions might look like 200-2000 years from now: (1) "Collapse of Civilisation, but no return to Eden", there is no advanced human civilisation left on Earth and current biological invasions play out in full; (2) "New Pangea", a combination of the unregulated and rapid movement of species around the world and other global change drivers leads to the biotic homogenisation of areas that were previously distinct biogeographic regions such that the concept of biological invasions no longer has meaning; (3) "Preserve or Use", while parts of the Earth continue to be utilised, some areas are actively managed and native biodiversity and biogeographic distributions are maintained; and (4) "Conservation Earth", a highly advanced civilisation restores the Earth to a state prior to the human-mediated movement of organisms (i.e. biological invasions are reversed). Based on various horizon-scanning exercises and our own deliberations, we discuss how technological, socio-political, trade, global change, and ecological