Participation patterns of the rainfall index insurance for pasture, rangeland and forage programme

Abstract

Using a novel policyholder-level data set, we analyse participants’ choices of 2-month index intervals in the Rainfall Index for Pasture, Rangeland and Forage (RI-PRF) insurance programme. We first provide a conceptual model that illustrates participation patterns of the rainfall index insurance. We then connect these predicted patterns to some empirical evidence from the policyholder-level data set, which is a subset of data provided by the USDA Risk Management Agency for all RI-PRF participants in Nebraska and Kansas during the years 2013–2017. Because the correlations between forage yield and precipitation and the expected premium subsidy vary by month, different degrees of risk aversion may predict distinctively different choices of the 2-month intervals. Using cluster analysis, we group the participants with similar allocation patterns across the 2-month intervals. We observe that the number of participants displaying relatively low levels of risk aversion increase over time. We connect this to the fact that premium subsidies and producer returns associated with non-growing season (risk-increasing) months are often greater than those for growing season (risk-reducing) months, and this has important implications for policy design. Our findings suggest that more research in this area could assist policymakers in keeping the RI-PRF programme in line with its objective of reducing risk for livestock producers.