News related to future gross domestic product (GDP) growth factor on asset pricing on the Spanish stock market?

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine whether a factor predictive of future economic growth, captures asset returns on the Spanish stock market. Furthermore, we analyze the possible economic rational interpretation of the Fama and French factors and momentum, as variables with information about the future economic growth. These effects are quantified for the stages of crisis (economic: 1993 to 1997, and financial: 2008 to 2011) and economic expansion (1998 to 2007). The results show the relevance and explanatory power of this predictor in all periods, but is a weak economic interpretation of the size and book-to-market ratio factors, since this factor reflects market news on growth future GDP. The economic impact of momentum factor is irrelevant.