ALSFRS-R decline rate prior to baseline is not useful for stratifying subsequent progression of functional decline

Abstract

Objective: One of the difficulties in developing a novel drug for patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is the significant variation in the clinical course. To control this variation, a 12-week run-in period is used in some clinical trials. Based on the Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Functional Rating Scale Revised (ALSFRS-R) change during the run-in period, only moderate progressors are selected in some clinical trials. Some reports showed that the ALSFRS-R progression rate was associated with survival. However, it is unclear whether the ALSFRS-R change in the run-in period is a useful prognostic factor of the ALSFRS-R change from baseline. In addition, we explore the inclusion criteria that could control the variability in ALS-function progression without setting a run-in period. Methods: We utilized the Japanese and US ALS registry databases (JaCALS and PRO-ACT). Patients were classified into three populations (rapid, moderate, and slow progressors) based on the ALSFRS-R change prior to baseline. We also classified patients into three prognostic populations based on the ALSFRS-R change from baseline. We confirmed whether each of the three populations were matched with their respective three prognostic populations. Results: Our data showed that the three groups classified by the ALSFRS-R change during the 12 weeks prior to baseline or by the rate of progression from onset to baseline did not accord with the three prognostic groups. Conclusions: Our results showed that the ALSFRS-R change in the run-in period or from onset to baseline is not useful for stratifying subsequent progression of functional decline in clinical trials.