Rare events in complex systems: Understanding and prediction

Abstract

Complex systems such as the earth, brain, human society, and infrastructure systems experience events that are rare in frequency but can have catastrophic consequences. In this Focus Issue, we discuss different tools from network science and dynamical systems that could improve our understanding of rare events in complex systems and provide us with the ability to predict and mitigate their unpleasant outcomes. This collection of articles covers a wide range of topics, such as identifying rare transitions in time series, employing time-delay feedback to mitigate extreme events and network analysis of large-scale spatiotemporal data sets of extreme events. In terms of applications, this Focus Issue includes a wide variety of studies as well, ranging from analysis of a rare political event such as the BREXIT to identifying the cause for the sudden demise of an ancient civilization.