Modeling of transmission pathways on canine heartworm dynamics

Abstract

Canine heartworm disease is a vector-borne disease that is transmitted from dog to dog by mosquitoes. It causes epidemics that disrupt the health environments of dogs and are burdensome for many dog owners. Recent trends of changing temperatures and weather conditions in South Korea may have an impact on the population of mosquitoes, and it affects the population of dogs at risk of heartworm infection. Mathematical modeling has become an important measure for analyzing the epidemiological characteristics of infectious diseases. However, canine heartworm infection transmission has not been reported yet through mathematical modeling. We develop a mathematical model of canine heartworm infection to predict the population of infected dogs depending on the vector (mosquito) population using a susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered model. Simulation results show that after 1 year, 3,289 dogs out of 73,602 (about 4.5%) are exposed and 134 (about 0.2%) are infected. Only 0.2% of susceptible dogs become infected after 1 year. However, if all exposed dogs are maintained in the same circumstances without any treatment, then the number of infected subjects will increase over time. This may increase the possibility of other dogs, especially dogs that live outside, being infected.