Risk Factor Analysis for Proximal Junctional Kyphosis After Adult Spinal Deformity Surgery: A New Simple Scoring System to Identify High-Risk Patients

Abstract

Study Design: Retrospective cohort study. Objective: Develop a simple scoring system to estimate proximal junctional kyphosis (PJK) risk. Methods: A total of 417 adult spinal deformity (ASD) patients (80% females, 57.8 years) with 2-year follow-up were included. PJK was defined as a >10° kyphotic angle between the upper-most instrumented vertebra (UIV) and the vertebrae 2 levels above the UIV (UIV+2). Based on a previous literature review, the following point score was attributed to parameters likely to impact PJK development: age >55 years (1 point), fusion to S1/ilium (1 point), UIV in the upper thoracic spine (UIV-UT: 1 point), UIV in the lower thoracic region (UIV-LT: 2 points), flattening of the thoracic kyphosis (TK) relative to the lumbar lordosis (LL; ie, ▵LL − ▵TK) greater than 10° (1 point). Results: At 2 years, the overall PJK rate was 43%. The odds ratios for each risk factor were the following: age >55 years (2.52), fusion to S1/ilium (5.17), UIV-UT (6.63), UIV-LT (8.24), and ▵LL − ▵TK >10° (1.59). Analysis by risk factor revealed a significant impact on PJK (no PJK vs PJK): age >55 years (28% vs 51%, P 10° surgical reduction in TK relative to LL increase (40.0% vs 51.5%, P