Decarbonizing Mongolia’s Energy Sector: A Techno-Economic Analysis of Hybrid Energy Solutions

Abstract

To achieve carbon neutrality and enhance energy security, Mongolia is exploring a transition toward hybrid energy solutions integrating small modular reactors (SMRs) and renewable energy sources. This study assesses the feasibility of a grid-connected hybrid energy system that combines coal, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind turbines, battery energy storage systems (BESS), and SMRs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy reliability. Using the HOMER software, multiple energy mix scenarios are evaluated based on net present cost (NPC), levelized cost of energy (LCOE), and CO2 emissions. The optimal scenario (Scenario 4) demonstrates a significant reduction in CO2 emissions, projecting a decrease to 6,755,129 metric tons by 2030 compared to the current system’s 10,860,025 metric tons. Additionally, this scenario achieves an NPC of $31.5 billion and an LCOE of $0.0801/kWh, demonstrating both economic viability and environmental benefits. The findings highlight the potential of SMRs and renewables in Mongolia’s energy transition, providing valuable insights for policymakers seeking a sustainable and decarbonized energy future.