The Power Transition under the Interaction of Different Systems—A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

Abstract

Power transition is the top priority in energy transition. All existing power transition paths have been studied under the same system; thus far, no basic research has investigated what paths are involved and how they cooperate with each other under the interaction of different systems. Taking the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), featuring a “one country, two systems” approach, as an example, this research identified and quantified the best path for the GBA’s power transition and explored the mode of cooperation during the power transition among the three regions under the interaction of different systems. The results showed that a combination of multiple low-carbon technologies is the best option for the GBA’s deep power transition, which can be characterized by the following components: “gas increase, nuclear increase, coal guarantee, and low proportion of renewable energy”. In this scenario, the GBA can achieve a carbon peak of 167 million tons of CO2 in 2023. Before 2030, the GBA needs to first develop class H gas power, photovoltaic power and nuclear power while phasing out subcritical and below thermal power cogeneration, and subcritical and below coal power. After 2030, a significant increase will be needed in the installed capacity of distributed gas power to replace some class E and F gas power units. Distributed rooftop PV power generation will be the mainstream method of renewable energy generation. Power generation through waste incineration can also provide a prominent contribution to urban biomass power. Under the interaction of different systems, breaking the technical barriers among the three regions would represent a breakthrough for establishing a cooperative power transition. A “one primary system, two auxiliary systems” theoretical framework of cooperation is proposed, and the scope of its application is revealed. This study can provide a case reference for the establishment of a win–win cooperation mechanism for energy transition in different countries.