Impact of climate change on rice yield under projected scenarios in central zone of Kerala

Abstract

The future climate for central zone of Kerala was estimated with climate change projections generated using ECHAM model and GFDL-CM3 model based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The CERES Rice model was used to evaluate the influence of climate change on the rice variety Jyothi during near (2030), mid (2050) and end of the century (2080) under 5 dates of planting. Results showed that the performance of rice variety Jyothi was better on October 1st planting under projected climate. Under RCP 4.5 the decrease in yield was 13.2, 21.3 and 31.9 per cent and under RCP 8.5 scenario, the decrease was 12.7, 24.8 and 36.0 per cent respectively during near, mid and end centuries. The yield reduction in almost all the planting dates in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios may be due to increased minimum and maximum temperature and increased rainfall during anthesis.