Heat risk of mortality in two different regions of the United Kingdom

Abstract

Heatwaves pose a protracted health risk depending on its intensity and exposure time. Not only cities but countryside areas are also exposed to risk of summertime heat which has not been recently updated at the bucolic scale. This study aims to associate temperature and mortality and explore its temporal variation. A Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was applied over daily mortality and maximum temperature data from 1981 to 2018 to formulate the lagged response of summer temperature. The relative risk (RR) and mortality attributable fraction (AF) with respect to minimum mortality temperature (MMT) in Southeast England and Aberdeenshire, UK was calculated. The RR and AF for high and extreme (95th and 99th percentile) temperature with respect to MMT have increased (RR– 1% and 7%; AF– 1.33 and 1.9 times, respectively) in Southeast England but reduced in Aberdeenshire (RR– 2% and 6%; AF– 0.49 and 0.15 times, respectively) in last two decades. However, lagged risk persists for very extreme temperature after several days of exposure at both sites and the hazard cannot be underestimated and neglected. Hence, action is needed to update the heat action plan for extreme temperature management formulating appropriate heat-mitigation strategies focused on vulnerable populations.