An Integrated Conceptual Framework for Adapting Forest Management Practices to Alternative Futures

Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated, conceptual framework that forest managers can use to simulate the multiple objectives/indicators of sustainability for different spatial patterns of forest management practices under alternative futures, rank feasible (affordable) treatment patterns for forested areas, and determine if and when it is advantageous to adapt or change the spatial pattern over time for each alternative future. The latter is defined in terms of three drivers: economic growth; land use policy; and climate change. Four forest management objectives are used to demonstrate the framework, minimizing wildfire risk and water pollution and maximizing expected net return from timber sales and the extent of potential wildlife habitat. The fuzzy technique for preference by similarity to the ideal solution is used to rank the feasible spatial patterns for each subperiod in a planning horizon and alternative future. The resulting rankings for subperiods are used in a passive adaptive management procedure to determine if and when it is advantageous to adapt the spatial pattern over subperiods. One of the objectives proposed for the conceptual framework is simulated for the period 2010–2059, namely, wildfire risk, as measured by expected residential losses from wildfire in the wildland-urban interface for Flathead County, Montana.