Insights into the Recovery of the Palila (Loxioides bailleui) on Hawaii through Use of Systems Behaviour Charts

Abstract

Conservation management requires decisions, interventions and goal-setting that will enable recovery of vulnerable species populations and habitats. System Behavior Charts involve analysis of longitudinal data sets to identify changes over time and to predict future status of the system. The insights they provide can offer insights for decision-making or action and therefore useful for management of species recovery programmes. The Palila (Loxioides bailleui) is a Hawaiian honeycreeper which is currently in decline. This study presents an analysis of population counts of Palila since 1980 using the Systems Behaviour Chart methodology. The results of the analysis reveal that despite population counts for Palila decreasing since 2003, the bird’s population has now stabilized and less precarious situation than the apparently larger pre-2003 population. Conservation managers can investigate why the population has stabilised and how that insight can be used to replicate future growth of the population towards sustainable recovered population.