The logistic dynamics of population growth as a prerequisite for global sustainable development

Abstract

As a result of phenomenon of demographic transition, Verhulst's logistic model is again relevant and allows to adequately reflect modern trends in population growth. The logistic dynamics of population growth can be considered as one of the main prerequisites for global sustainable development. Our research was based on the conclusions of most modern researchers, according to which the number of the Earth's population cannot grow indefinitely. Such estimates are based on the limited reserves of the main exhaustible resources and on the current trend of declining birth rates. This indicates that the planet is moving into a new stationary state that corresponds to its increased industrial and technological capabilities, a higher level of health care. We built the logistic models that describe the dynamics of Earth population growth and its individual continents. These models make it possible to forecast the population size and its growth rates for the next 200 years. Obtained results open up an opportunity for regulation and optimal management of the Earth's demographic resources.