Critical continuous rainfall map for forecasting shallow landslide initiations in Busan, Korea

Abstract

In recent years, precipitation patterns in Korea have shifted to be characterized as short and intense rainfalls. In consideration of shallow landslide initiations primarily governed by heavy rainfalls at short-time scales that diminish drainage effects, the concept of critical continuous rainfall is proposed as a single-rainfall-variable threshold for shallow landslide forecasting. To generate a critical continuous rainfall map for hillslope areas in a city of Korea (Busan), this study designed and applied a systematic modeling process. As a preparatory stage, input datasets of geo-hydraulic properties and geotechnical properties were assembled using estimation techniques based on experiment data of field samples. The inherent and fixed critical continuous rainfall values for hillslope areas in Busan were derived through one-dimensional infiltration analysis coupled with infinite slope stability calculations. As a result of a detailed analysis of historical rainfall records in a case study area over a period of 11 years, three false forecasting cases were recorded, whereas all landslide-triggering rainfall events were correctly captured with no missed forecasting cases. The results of the case study indicate that the proposed critical continuous rainfall may be useful as an effective and straightforward indicator for forecasting the initiation of shallow landslides.