Causality Analysis of the Brent Oil Prices, the Gold Prices and the Exchange Rates (USD/IDR) on Indonesia Composite Index (Empi rical Study January 2016 – April 2021)

Abstract

Global economic conditions are in turmoil due to the COVID-19 pandemic since 2019. Many policies are implemented to suppress the spread of the virus, which then has an impact on economic activity. It influences investors' attitudes and changes the choices in investing. This study aims to analyze the causal relationship between the Indonesia Composite Index (ICI) and gold prices, oil prices and the exchange rate (USD/IDR). This study used monthly data for the period January 2016 – April 2021 with an analysis of the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), which is a restricted VAR model with the Eviews 10 tool. The long-term VECM estimation results show that Brent oil prices and gold prices have a negative effect while the exchange rate (USD/USD) IDR) the ICI. The Granger causality test shows that the ICI has a one-way causality relationship with the exchange rate (USD/IDR).