Risk Assessment Model Based on Set Pair Analysis Applied to Airport Bird Strikes

Abstract

In order to comprehensively evaluate the risk of bird strike at airports and effectively prevent the occurrence of bird strike events, this paper constructs the risk assessment index system of airport bird strike from five perspectives of “personnel-bird-equipment-environment-management”. For the purpose of maximizing variances, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the entropy weight method are combined and used to obtain the comprehensive weights. The five-element connection number of Set Pair Analysis (SPA) is introduced to establish the identical-discrepancy-contrary airport bird strike risk assessment model, and the risk trend is analyzed according to the partial connection number for each order. The experiment results show that the combined weighting method can minimize the weight deviation and demonstrate good accuracy in determining the weights of indicators at all levels. The established airport bird strike risk assessment model can reasonably predict the risk trend, which is significant for airport personnel to carry out bird strike prevention works.