Affective polarization and democratic backsliding

Abstract

Evidence is strong that affective polarization and democratic backsliding are interlinked phenomena. But research still examines the causal directions between the two, mediating causal mechanisms, and the relation between individual-level polarization, norms, and attitudes and group-level political behavior. Highlighting potential ecological inference issues underlying individual-level inquiries, we focus on the systemic-level links between affective polarization and backsliding. While mass affective polarization may or may not contribute to other modes of autocratization, it is especially likely to facilitate democratic backsliding because it occurs under popularly elected governments and gradually. Investigating the polity-level and qualitative dynamics of polarization as a process is necessary to understand many causal links between affective polarization and backsliding. Crucial are, for example, political elite interests, framing and agency, interactive group dynamics, and discursive trends and institutional incentives. The impact of group-level affective polarization on democratic outcomes may evolve through discontinuous leaps, which quantitative operationalizations may only partially be able to capture. The impact can be disproportionately negative once polarization settles on a pernicious state. Different types and levels of polarization coexist, reinforce, and follow each other in chain reactions, leading to a multilayered process.