Short- and long-term evolution in our arms race with cancer: Why the war on cancer is winnable

Abstract

Human society is engaged in an arms race against cancer, which pits one evolutionary process—human cultural evolution as we develop novel cancer therapies—against another evolutionary process—the ability of oncogenic selection operating among cancer cells to select for lineages that are resistant to our therapies. Cancer cells have a powerful ability to evolve resistance over the short term, leading to patient relapse following an initial period of apparent treatment efficacy. However, we are the beneficiaries of a fundamental asymmetry in our arms race against cancer: Whereas our cultural evolution is a long-term and continuous process, resistance evolution in cancer cells operates only over the short term and is discontinuous — all resistance adaptations are lost each time a cancer patient dies. Thus, our cultural adaptations are permanent, whereas cancer's genetic adaptations are ephemeral. Consequently, over the long term, there is good reason to expect that we will emerge as the winners in our war against cancer.