Climatic Constraints on Laggar Falcon (Falco jugger) Distribution Predicts Multidirectional Range Movements under Future Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

Determining a species' geographic range is important for conservation planning, yet this information is lacking for many raptors. In rapidly changing environments, defining current and predicting future distributions can help define priority areas for monitoring and research. The Laggar Falcon (Falco jugger) is a rare and understudied raptor resident across the Indian subcontinent, categorized as Near Threatened, with populations potentially in rapid decline. Using a Species Distribution Modelling framework we update current distribution and predict future distribution based on two future climate change scenarios for 2050. Our current distribution model had high predictive accuracy, and defined core areas of high climatic suitability in western India and southeastern Pakistan. Three bioclimatic variables contributed 79.9% to model prediction: mean temperature of the wettest quarter (50.1%), precipitation seasonality (17.6%), and precipitation in the driest month (12.2%). Projecting our model into climate change scenarios for 2050 resulted in up to 6% mean gain in suitable climate space for a lower emission scenario, but a 5% mean loss in suitable climate by 2050 in a high emissions scenario. All future predictive models showed similar multidirectional range movements within the current predicted core range. Based on these results, Laggar Falcon distribution may not be adversely affected by climate change. We recommend directed population surveys and monitoring based on current model predictions of areas of highest climate suitability, which are likely where Laggar Falcons will persist into the near future. Regular monitoring and research will enhance our knowledge for this raptor, while contributing further data to improve our model predictions.