Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change

Abstract

Climate change will likely impact wind and solar resources. As power systems increasingly shift towards wind and solar power, these resource changes will increasingly impact power system operations. We assess how power system operations will be affected by climate change impacts on wind and solar resources by generating wind and solar generation profiles for a reference period and five climate change projections. We then run a unit commitment and economic dispatch model to dispatch a high-renewable generator fleet with these profiles. For climate change projections, we use 2041-2050 output from five global climate models (GCMs) for Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for Texas, our study system. All five GCMs indicate increased wind generation potential by 1%-4% under climate change in Texas, while three and two GCMs indicate increased and decreased solar generation potential, respectively, by up to 1%. Uneven generation potential changes across time result in greater changes in dispatched generation by fuel type. Notably, nuclear generation decreases across GCMs by up to 7%, largely in low-demand (winter) months when nuclear plants, which have a high minimum stable load, must reduce their generation to avoid overgeneration. Increased wind and/or solar generation result in reduced system CO2 emissions and electricity production costs across four of the five GCMs by 8-16 million tons and $216-516 million, or by 2% and 1%, respectively. Future research should assess the atmospheric and climate dynamics that underlie such changes in power system operations.