Iterative refinement and smoothing of cyclone tracks from mean sea level pressure data

Abstract

Local nonlinear regression fits are applied to mean sea level pressure data from 24 member ensemble forecasts of three recent tropical cyclones in the Australian region. Cyclone track estimates derived from the fits are subjected to verification calculations in the form of error-spread diagrams, demonstrating consistency with a recent global ensemble study, with attention also given to cross and along track error components. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2013.