Does China overinvest? Evidence from a panel of Chinese firms

Abstract

This paper uses a dataset of more than 100,000 firms over the period of 2000–2007 to assess whether and why Chinese firms overinvest. We find that corporate investment is more efficient in the non-state sector. Within all ownership categories, we uncover evidence indicating a degree of overinvestment among firms that invest more than their industry median or more than their predicted optimal investment. The free cash flow hypothesis provides a good explanation for China’s overinvestment in the non-state sectors, whereas in the state sector, overinvestment is attributable to the poor screening and monitoring of enterprises by banks.