Seismic shaking in the North China Basin expected from ruptures of a possible seismic gap

Abstract

A 160 km long seismic gap, which has not been ruptured over ~8000 years, was identified recently in North China. In this study, we use a dynamic source model and a newly available high-resolution 3-D velocity structure to simulate long-period ground motion (up to 0.5 Hz) from possibly worst case rupture scenarios of the seismic gap. We find that the characteristics of the earthquake source and the local geologic structure play a critical role in controlling the amplitude and distribution of the simulated strong ground shaking. Rupture directivity and slip asperities can result in large-amplitude (i.e., >1 m/s) ground shaking near the fault, whereas long-duration shaking may occur within sedimentary basins. In particular, a deep and closed Quaternary basin between Beijing and Tianjin can lead to ground shaking of several tens of cm/s for more than 1 min. These results may provide a sound basis for seismic mitigation in one of the most populated regions in the world.