Impacts of Different Epidemic Outbreaks on Broiler Industry Chain Price Fluctuations in China: Implications for Sustainable Food Development

Abstract

Poultry products are crucial for meeting consumer needs and ensuring food sustainability. Unlike previous studies that examined the effect of only one animal disease on broiler prices, this study utilized a time-varying parametric vector auto-regressive (TVP-VAR) model to analyze the dynamic impacts of poultry and swine epidemics on price fluctuations in the upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors of the broiler industry. The findings revealed the following: (1) Both poultry and swine epidemics significantly affected price dynamics in China’s broiler industry, with varying effects over time. (2) The impact of these epidemics varied across different segments of the broiler industry, with chicken prices most affected, followed by live chicken prices, then broiler chick prices, and lastly, broiler feed prices. (3) Poultry epidemics generally exerted negative impacts on broiler industry prices, whereas swine epidemics predominantly had positive effects. (4) The influence of these epidemics on broiler industry prices gradually weakened over extended periods. (5) Poultry epidemics impact broiler industry prices rapidly but briefly, in contrast to the delayed and more sustained effects of swine epidemics. The results of this study will be an important guide for the prevention and control of animal diseases in developing countries and for the sustainable development of the broiler industry.