System Dynamics Modelling in Determining Scenario of Oil Distribution Balikpapan - Samarinda

Abstract

East Kalimantan will be designated as the Ibu Kota Negara (IKN) of Indonesia. Energy consumption is predicted to increase, but based on Badan Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional (Bappenas), fuel consumption will slowly be converted to gas. Previously, the process of fulfilling fuel needs in East Kalimantan was fulfilled using tankers, but with the issue of IKN, the government will build oil pipe Balikpapan - Samarinda that distribute fuel from TBBM Tanjung Batu to TBBM Samarinda and TBBM Palaran This research is for determine which scenario are efficient to distribute the fuel using forecasting methods with trend analysis, exponential smoothing, and moving average, while Powersim Studio 8 software is used for system dynamics modelling. With the help of this application, 6 alternative scenarios are made based on the tank capacity of each TBBM to find out the least amount of pigging. From the simulation, it was found that the second alternative is the most efficient for the process of distributing fuel. Where the results of the simulation process obtained pigging of 58 times/year with the capacity of gasoil TBBM Palaran 10000 kl, gasoil TBBM Samarinda 12306 kl and the gasoline is 14562 kl.