Türkiye'de Dış Borçlanma, Büyüme ve Enflasyon İlişkisi: Var Yaklaşımı (1980-2013)

Abstract

External debt is one of the most important macroeconomic problems for the economies of developing countries such as Turkey. In this study, the relationship between external debt, economic growth and inflation is examined specific to Turkey's economy. Accordingly, the data for the period of 1980-2013 are analyzed using the ADF unit root, Granger causality test, variance decomposition and impulse-response functions in the scope of VAR technique. Research results reveal that there is a unidirectional causal relationship from economic growth in Turkey to inflation and external debt, a shock in the rate of growth has also a strong impact on foreign debt. The results for the variance decomposition indicate that any change in the external debt has a significant effect on the inflation rate.