Evaluating Interdependence: The Impacts of the February 2021 Coup on Myanmar–China Relations

Abstract

This article explores the deepening interdependence between China and Myanmar following the February 2021 coup that ousted Myanmar's elected government. The coup precipitated widespread violence, economic instability, and increased reliance on China as a critical partner amidst international isolation. Utilising interdependence theory as a framework, this study dissects the multi-dimensional aspects of China–Myanmar relations. Historical context underscores a complex partnership that has intensified since the coup, with China providing military support to and shielding Myanmar's junta in international forums, as well as increasing economic investments. The analysis reveals a shift towards high interdependence, characterised by significant mutual influence and high costs associated with severing ties. This study also notes the limitations to China's absolute control over Myanmar's political trajectory, suggesting that a potential recalibration of Myanmar's foreign relations is possible if and when a post-junta government may seek to balance Chinese influence with engagements with other regional powers.