CLIMATE CHANGE FACTORS' IMPACT ON THE EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR

Abstract

Climate change is the greatest threat to agriculture and food security, particularly in developing countries. Climate change occurs as CO2 levels in the atmosphere rise, causing changes in wind patterns and rainfall and rising temperatures. This study assumes that climate change will have a long-run impact on Egypt's agricultural sector. So, an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) was applied to examine the effects of climate change factors and other economic factors on Egyptian agricultural GDP in the short and long run from 1990 to 2020. The findings indicate that climate change factors have a long-run impact on Egypt's agricultural sector. In the long run, CO2 is the primary cause of Egypt's increasing temperatures. In the short run, climate change occurs because CO2 levels in the atmosphere increase, resulting in global warming, storms, floods, and rising sea levels. The result is that rising temperatures have reduced agricultural GDP.