Lymph node metastases and recurrence in pT1 colorectal cancer: Prediction with the International Budding Consortium Score—A retrospective, multi-centric study

Abstract

Background: The International Collaboration on Cancer Reporting proposes histological tumour type, lymphovascular invasion, tumour grade, perineural invasion, extent, and dimensions of invasion as risk factors for lymph node metastases and tumour progression in completely endoscopically resected pT1 colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective: The aim of the study was to propose a predictive and reliable score to optimise the clinical management of endoscopically resected pT1 CRC patients. Methods: This multi-centric, retrospective International Budding Consortium (IBC) study included an international pT1 CRC cohort of 565 patients. All cases were reviewed by eight expert gastrointestinal pathologists. All risk factors were reported according to international guidelines. Tumour budding and immune response (CD8+ T-cells) were assessed with automated models using artificial intelligence. We used the information on risk factors and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression to develop a prediction model and generate a score to predict the occurrence of lymph node metastasis or cancer recurrence. Results: The IBC prediction score included the following parameters: lymphovascular invasion, tumour buds, infiltration depth and tumour grade. The score has an acceptable discrimination power (area under the curve of 0.68 [95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.61–0.75]; 0.64 [95% CI 0.57–0.71] after internal validation). At a cut-off of 6.8 points to discriminate high-and low-risk patients, the score had a sensitivity and specificity of 0.9 [95% CI 0.8–0.95] and 0.26 [95% 0.22, 0.3], respectively. Conclusion: The IBC score is based on well-established risk factors and is a promising tool with clinical utility to support the management of pT1 CRC patients.