On the assessment of the value of the seasonal forecast information

Abstract

Seasonal climate forecasts are now routinely produced at many operational and research centres. With the availability of the emerging technology of seasonal climate predictions for managing risks, however, it has proven difficult to quantify the value of seasonal climate forecasts in various applications. The definition of the value in the context of the use of the Seasonal Forecast Information (SFI) is the net benefit a user (or society) incurs as a result of change in management practices in response to the availability of the SFI.A review of the difficulties associated with the value assessment of the SFI is presented. The paper includes a broad overview of pathways how the SFI is used by the various users and applications. The discussion then summarizes difficulties associated with isolating the benefits of the use of the SFI leading to the current paradigm where the value assessments from the use of the SFI are hard to quantify. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.