Migration and Unrest in the Deep South Thailand: A Multilevel Analysis of a Longitudinal Study

Abstract

Although migration of Muslims from the southernmost provinces of Thailand to Malaysia has a long history, research suggests that the intensity of this migration has increased in the past 10 years along with increased unrest in the provinces. This study examines how migration in the three southernmost provinces is affected by the ongoing unrest. Data are drawn from household probability surveys conducted in 2014 and 2016. An individual sample of 3,467 persons who were household residents at the 2014 survey was followed to see who remained in the household of origin or moved out two years later (2016 survey). Data on violent events from the Deep South Watch, an independent organization, were used to measure exposure to violence. Results from a multilevel analysis show that net of other characteristics at the individual, household, and village levels, individuals who live in a village in which a violent event occurred in the previous year are more likely to move out than those who live in a village with no violent event in the previous year. Findings suggest that in addition to the economic reasons that have long motivated migration from this area, violent events accelerate this migration.