Multimodal percutaneous thermal ablation of small hepatocellular carcinoma: Predictive factors of recurrence and survival in western patients

Abstract

Background: To identify the predictive factors of recurrence and survival in an unselected population of Western patients who underwent multimodal percutaneous thermal ablation (PTA) for small Hepatocellular Carcinomas (HCCs). Methods: January 2015–June 2019: data on multimodal PTA for <3 cm HCC were extracted from a prospective database. Local tumor progression (LTP), intrahepatic distant recurrence (IDR), time-to-LTP, time-to-IDR, recurrence-free (RFS) and overall (OS) survival were evaluated. Results: 238 patients underwent 317 PTA sessions to treat 412 HCCs. During follow-up (median: 27.1 months), 47.1% patients had IDR and 18.5% died. LTP occurred after 13.3% of PTA. Tumor size (OR = 1.108, p < 0.001; hazard ratio (HR) = 1.075, p = 0.002) and ultrasound guidance (OR = 0.294, p = 0.017; HR = 0.429, p = 0.009) independently predicted LTP and time-to-LTP, respectively. Alpha fetoprotein (AFP) > 100 ng/mL (OR = 3.027, p = 0.037) and tumor size (OR = 1.06, p = 0.001) independently predicted IDR. Multinodular HCC (HR = 2.67, p < 0.001), treatment-naïve patient (HR = 0.507, p = 0.002) and AFP > 100 ng/mL (HR = 2.767, p = 0.014) independently predicted time-to-IDR. RFS was independently predicted by multinodular HCC (HR = 2.144, p = 0.001), treatment naivety (HR = 0.546, p = 0.004) and AFP > 100 ng/mL (HR = 2.437, p = 0.013). The American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score > 2 (HR = 4.273, p = 0.011), AFP (HR = 1.002, p < 0.001), multinodular HCC (HR = 3.939, p = 0.003) and steatotic HCC (HR = 1.81 × 10-16, p < 0.001) independently predicted OS. Conclusions: IDR was associated with tumor aggressiveness, suggesting a metastatic mechanism. Besides AFP association with LTP, IDR, RFS and OS, treatment-naïve patients had longer RFS, and multi-nodularity was associated with shorter RFS and OS. Steatotic HCC, identified on pre-treatment MRI, independently predicted longer OS, and needs to be further explored.