Forecasting the trend of tourism industry in the United States: using ARIMA model and ETS model

Abstract

As a result of the 2019 epidemic, all industries around the world have been hit hard, especially the tourism industry. Governments have introduced many measures to maintain the tourism industry, but the results are not satisfactory, and the industry has even experienced negative growth. In order to predict the future trend of the tourism industry and to make decisions, this paper has selected five different data on airlines, hotels, car rentals and travel agencies in the US tourism industry as the basis, and will use two models, ETS and ARIMA, to forecast the data from 2000 to 2020 respectively, to obtain the data without the impact of the epidemic, and then compare the forecast results with the historical real data. The results will then be compared with the historical data. Finally, a model suitable for each data was obtained.