Temperature and cardiovascular mortality associations in four southern Chinese cities: A time-series study using a distributed lag non-linear model

Abstract

Few studies on population-specific health effects of extreme temperature on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) deaths have been conducted in the subtropical and tropical climates of China. We examined the association between extreme temperature and CVD across four cities in China. We performed a two-stage analysis; we generated city-specific estimates using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and estimated the overall effects by conducting a meta-analysis. Heat thresholds of 29 °C, 29 °C, 29 °C, and 30 °C and cold thresholds of 6 °C, 10 °C, 14 °C, and 15 °C were observed in Hefei, Changsha, Nanning, and Haikou, respectively. The lag periods for heat-related CVD mortality were observed only for 0-2 days, while those of cold-related CVD mortality were observed for 10-15 days. The meta-analysis showed that a 1 °C increase above the city-specific heat threshold was associated with average overall CVD mortality increases of 4.6% (3.0%-6.2%), 6.4% (3.4%-9.4%), and 0.2% (-4.8%-5.2%) for all ages, ≥65 years, and < 65 years over a lag period of 0-2 days, respectively. Similarly, a 1 °C decrease below the city-specific cold threshold was associated with average overall CVD mortality increases of 4.2% (3.0%-5.4%), 4.9% (3.5%-6.3%), and 3.1% (1.7%-4.5%), for all ages, ≥65 years, and < 65 years over a lag period of 0-15 days, respectively. This work will help to take appropriate measures to reduce temperature-mortality risk in different populations in the subtropical and tropical climates of China.