A shift-share method for the analysis of regional fertility change: An application to the decline in childbearing in Italy, 1952-1991

Abstract

This paper applies shift-share analysis, a tool often used in economic geography and regional science, to regional fertility change in Italy, 1952-1991. During this post-World War II period, Italian fertility declined by over 33 percent, but the decline varied widely from region to region. Moreover, the demographic originations of the decline in births are not fully understood. Using birth data for nineteen Italian regions, this analysis is able to break regional change in births into three main components: a national effect, a cohort effect, and a regional differential effect, which in turn provide insight into the roots of fertility change at the regional level. These three components of change are then further disaggregated to account for the differences between changes due to population change and those related to actual changes in birth rates (the number of children produced by each woman). Strong regional differences between the north and south of Italy are demonstrated.