Global climate governance inequality unveiled through dynamic influence assessment

Abstract

This study defines the concept of major and minor countries and establishes a multidimensional and dynamic assessment system to evaluate the influence of countries participating in global climate governance. We systematically calculate 45 indicators for 53 countries across 9 global climate negotiation interest groups over the seven years. Our findings indicate a significant difference in influence between major and minor countries. This gap is particularly significant regarding losses incurred from climate disasters, with a more than fourfold difference between the top 25% and the bottom 25% in the influence rankings. The influence-climate disaster Index Gini coefficient further indicates that climate governance is characterized by extreme inequality. We argue that this phenomenon arises because those with more decisive influence in global climate governance do not bear losses from climate disasters commensurate with their influence. Therefore, their willingness to participate in climate governance is lower than those who suffer greater consequences.