Modelling and Forecasting Cash Withdrawals in the Bank

Abstract

The goal of the paper is searching for the optimal forecasting model estimating the amount of cash withdrawn daily by the customers of one of the Polish banks by means of statistical and machine learning methods. The methodology of model creation and assessment criteria are significantly different for the models considered in the paper — i.e., for ARMAX and MLP. However, the comparison of forecasts generated by both models seems to be useful. Variables and attributes reflecting the calendar effects, used in both models, in case of obtained errors of forecasts less than 20%, showed a significant, non-linear influence of this type of predictors on the amount of the daily cash withdrawals at the bank, and hence on the amount of the daily declared cash limit.