Effectiveness of closure of public places with time delay in disease control.

Abstract

A theoretical basis for the evaluation of the effciency of quarantine measure is developed in a SIR model with time delay. In this model, the effectiveness of the closure of public places such as schools in disease control, modeled as a high degree node in a social network, is evaluated by considering the effect of the time delay in the identification of the infected. In the context of the SIR model, the relation between the number of infectious individuals who are identified with time delay and then quarantined and those who are not identified and continue spreading the virus are investigated numerically. The social network for the simulation is modeled by a scale free network. Closure measures are applied to those infected nodes with high degrees. The effectiveness of the measure can be controlled by the present value of the critical degree K(C): only those nodes with degree higher than K(C) will be quarantined. The cost C(Q) incurred for the closure measure is assumed to be proportional to the total links rendered inactive as a result of the measure, and generally decreases with K(C), while the medical cost C(Q) incurred for virus spreading increases with K(C). The total social cost (C(M) + C(Q)) will have a minimum at a critical K(*), which depends on the ratio of medical cost coeffcient alpha(M) and closure cost coeffcient alpha(Q). Our simulation results demonstrate a mathematical procedure to evaluate the effciency of quarantine measure. Although the numerical work is based on a scale free network, the procedure can be readily generalized and applied to a more realistic social network to determine the proper closure measure in future epidemics.