Trajectory Prediction for Powered Two-Wheelers in Mixed Traffic Scenes: An Enhanced Social-GAT Approach

Abstract

In mixed traffic scenarios involving both motorized and non-motorized participants, accurately predicting future trajectories of surrounding vehicles remains a major challenge for autonomous driving. Predicting the motion of powered two-wheelers (PTWs) is particularly difficult due to their abrupt behavioral changes and stochastic interaction patterns. To address this issue, this paper proposes an enhanced Social-GAT model with a multi-module architecture for PTW trajectory prediction. The model consists of a dual-channel LSTM encoder that separately processes position and motion features; a temporal attention mechanism to weight key historical states; and a residual-connected two-layer GAT structure to model social relationships within the interaction range, capturing interactive features between PTWs and surrounding vehicles through dynamic adjacency matrices. Finally, an LSTM decoder integrates spatiotemporal features and outputs the predicted trajectory. Experimental results on the rounD dataset demonstrate that our model achieves an outstanding ADE of 0.28, surpassing Trajectron++ by 9.68% and Social-GAN by 69.2%. It also attains the lowest RMSE values across 0.4–2.0s prediction horizons, confirming its superior accuracy and stability for PTW trajectory prediction in mixed traffic environments.