Affective polarization and political (dis)trust: Investigating their interconnection and the moderating role of (social) media use

Abstract

This article investigates the interplay between political trust and affective polarization during the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections and how this interplay is moderated by (social) media use. We hypothesize a reciprocal relationship, where trust influences affective polarization and vice versa. This interaction may intensify in election campaigns. Using a cross-lagged panel model on a panel wave survey conducted during the 2023 Dutch parliamentary election campaign, we analyze trust and polarization dynamics across five distinct media user types, including quality media users, social media users, and news minimalists. Findings indicate that higher political trust leads to lower affective polarization; however, polarization does not significantly impact trust. Importantly, quality media users show no connection between trust and polarization. In contrast, social media users exhibit less stable levels of political trust, highlighting the potential volatility of trust among this group during campaigns. Our findings emphasize media's moderating role in shaping political attitudes.