THE IMPACT OF GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CHALLENGES ON THE DECREASE IN TOURIST FLOWS

Abstract

The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the impact of global and regional events on the dynamics of tourist flows. The primary reasons for the decrease in inbound tourist flows have been identified and categorized into three main groups: military-political class, economic class, and natural-technological class. Additionally, a hybrid class was identified, to which COVID-19 was assigned. The article is based on causal and comparative analysis, utilizing statistical data on tourist flows provided by the World Bank and UNWTO, as well as an assessment of similar patterns among countries worldwide. The main characteristics of tourist flows from 1995 to 2022 have been identified, pinpointing leaders among countries in increasing and decreasing the number of tourists per year. During the study, countries with similar patterns of tourist flow dynamics were identified. It was concluded that relying solely on quantitative analysis has limited applicability in identifying these patterns. Therefore, it is recommended that quantitative analysis be complemented with expert assessments for a more comprehensive understanding. The basic strategies for responding to the identified classes of causes were outlined. The research will benefit tourism professionals, governmental authorities, and researchers in socio-economic and political disciplines.