The Future of Carbon Offset Markets in Africa: Towards Equitable Climate Finance

Abstract

This study critically examines the adoption and implementation of carbon offset markets in Africa through a systematic literature review guided by the PRISMA framework and complemented by a bibliometric analysis using VOSviewer. Drawing on peer-reviewed articles and reports published between 2000 and 2025, the review assesses key dimensions, including project design, governance structures, stakeholder engagement, and environmental outcomes. Findings reveal that Africa’s offset carbon markets are expanding but remain hindered by weak governance, limited transparency, and inequitable benefit-sharing, which often allow intermediaries to capture disproportionate value, fueling perceptions of “carbon colonialism.” Inadequate baseline methodologies and weak monitoring, particularly in forestry and cookstove projects, further erode the credibility of the offset markets. Nevertheless, Africa’s comparative advantage in nature-based solutions, including forestry and blue-carbon ecosystems, presents vast potential for generating high-integrity credits that benefit biodiversity and livelihoods. The study proposes a framework emphasising free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC), transparent benefit-sharing, independent monitoring, and digital, monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) systems to enhance integrity and community trust. It further recommends establishing transparent price-discovery mechanisms and Paris Agreement Article 6-aligned national registries to prevent double-counting and strengthen regulatory coherence. By advancing community-centred governance and high-integrity standards, African carbon offset markets can mobilise substantial climate finance and contribute effectively to global emission reduction goals, positioning the continent as a credible partner in the low-carbon transition. JEL Classifications: Q54, O13, F18.