Spatial variation in fertility change at the county level in China

Abstract

Fertility change varies spatially in China, however, the trend and factors that influence the variation at the county level are not fully understood. We analysed the spatial variation in fertility change at the county level in China between 2000 and 2010 using spatial Durbin models. We focused on understanding whether and how changes in population composition, local context, and migration influence changing fertility levels across counties. The results show that fertility change varied in different regions from 2000 to 2010, supporting the idea that the stages of fertility transition are spatially different. An increase in females' educational level and a decrease in the share of the married population in a given county and its neighbouring counties are associated with fertility decline. The results highlight that the determinants of the second demographic transition (e.g. education, marital status, gender equality) are more appropriate than economic development and urbanisation to explain spatial variation in fertility change in China from 2000 to 2010. There are significant spillover effects, i.e. changes in neighbouring areas also influence fertility changes in a given region.