Forecasting Staffing Needs for Ontario’s Long-Term Care Sector

Abstract

This paper presents a forecasting model for personal support workers (PSWs) and nurses (registered nurses [RNs] and registered practical nurses [RPNs]) for Ontario’s long-term care (LTC) sector. In the base-case scenario, the model projects a shortfall in the supply of full-time equivalent (FTE) workers required to meet the expected demand for care for all workers by 2035, which would require an estimated increase of 11,632 FTE PSWs, 6,031 FTE RNs and 10,178 FTE RPNs entering the market by 2035. The results of this paper may have important implications for health human resources policy planning in Ontario’s LTC sector.