Comparative Analysis of Observed and Empirical Rainfall Distribution for Flood Hydrograph Modeling

Abstract

Flood disasters in Indonesia are persistent challenges during the rainy season, primarily due to intense rainfall and inadequate flood control. This study evaluates hourly rainfall to characterize hydrology and predict flood discharge more accurately, benefiting water infrastructure planning. The research used modified Mononobe methods, observational data, and rainfall-runoff modeling, including HEC-HMS simulations with the SCS-CN unit hydrograph. Observed rainfall simulated a flood discharge of 779.7 m³/s, while empirical rainfall yielded 3623 m³/s, showing a 79.12% deviation. Comparing flood hydrographs, recorded rainfall data closely matched previous studies (R² = 0.94), unlike empirical rainfall (R² = 0.88). The study concludes that observed rainfall is highly effective for estimating flood runoff, accurately representing local characteristics. This method significantly aids planning and design of water resource infrastructure like dams, weirs, and bridges at the study site.