A Simulation based Optimization Study for Optimum Sequencing of Precast Components Considering Supply Chain Risks

Abstract

Unquestionably, Precast Supply Chain (PSC) abounds with many risks distributed along its echelons. Despite that there is a wide consensus among the previous studies about the negative impact of these risks on the PSC performance, its effect on making operational decisions in precast plants such as scheduling of Precast Components (PCs) is still ambiguous. So, this study aims at exploring and quantifying the effect of considering PSC risks on the optimum PCs sequences. To accomplish this, different processes of the PSC with their associated risks are modelled via a discrete event simulation model. Then, the developed simulation model is linked with an optimizer to generate PCs sequences that achieve on-time delivery of PCs with minimum production costs. This optimization process is conducted twice, with and without considering supply chain risks. Interestingly, the optimum PCs sequences generated in both cases are totally different. More importantly, the optimized PCs sequences produced without considering risks may backfire and cause higher production and penalty costs if they are applied to a PSC exposed to risk. So, investing in making a reliable risk management plan of the PSC not only can cushion the risks impact but also can lead to better sequences of PCs.