Investigating the Association Between Heatstroke Mortality and Climatic Factors in Bangladesh: An Ecological Time Series Study

Abstract

Background and Aims: Heatstroke is a life-threatening illness with increasing global prevalence, largely influenced by weather conditions. It is a major health concern in Bangladesh, where the climate is especially hot and humid during the summer months. Temperature and humidity are two key factors of heat-related health outcomes. This study aims to analyze the effects of these climatic factors on heatstroke mortality in Bangladesh. Methods: The study utilized secondary data collected from April 1, 2024, to May 31, 2024. Daily heatstroke mortality cases and corresponding climatic factors were analyzed. Descriptive statistics were used to summarize the data, while Kendall's tau b and Spearman's ρ were applied to measure the bivariate associations. The Negative Binomial (NB) regression model was employed to evaluate the impact of daily maximum temperature and relative humidity on heatstroke mortality. Results: The findings revealed a positive association between climatic factors and heatstroke mortality. Maximum temperature was associated with higher risk of mortality (IRR: 1.71, 95% CI: 1.34–2.17), as was relative humidity (IRR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.01–1.08). Specifically, a one-unit increase in the daily maximum temperature and relative humidity was associated with a 71% and 5% increase in the rate of heatstroke mortality, respectively. Conclusion: Climatic factors, mainly temperature and humidity, play a significant role in heatstroke mortality in Bangladesh. These findings highlight the need for targeted public health interventions and climate change policies to reduce heat-related health risks, especially among vulnerable populations.