The impact of climatic changes on total horticultural production and food security in agro-ecological zones of Iran

Abstract

Arid and semi-arid climates, including that of Iran, are more susceptible to environmental changes due to their special ecological structure than other climates. Therefore, climate change in these areas appears to have significant effects on agricultural and food production systems. The present study explores the effect of climatic changes on total horticultural production and food security in agro-ecological zones of Iran. The study was conducted in two steps. In the first step, the effects of climatic parameters on total horticultural production were investigated using time series data (1985–2017) and a regression model. In the second step, due to the important role of horticultural products in per capita food consumption in Iran, the effect of climate parameters on food security was also examined. Results revealed that total horticultural production was influenced by temperature, evapotranspiration, and wind speed at the 0.05 level. With the increase in temperature (at a rate of one unit), total horticultural production is reduced to 0.01 million tons. Evapotranspiration and wind speed have had a negative effect on total horticultural production, and with increasing evapotranspiration and wind speed, total horticultural production was 0.029 and 0.008 million, respectively, tons decreased. Also, food security was influenced by temperature, precipitation, and wind speed.