Multiday Soil Moisture Persistence and Atmospheric Predictability Resulting From Sahelian Mesoscale Convective Systems

Abstract

Skill in predicting where damaging convective storms will occur is limited, particularly in the tropics. In principle, near-surface soil moisture (SM) patterns from previous storms provide an important source of skill at the mesoscale, yet these structures are often short-lived (hours to days), due to both soil drying processes and the impact of new storms. Here, we use satellite observations over the Sahel to examine how the strong, locally negative, SM-precipitation feedback there impacts rainfall patterns over subsequent days. The memory of an initial storm pattern decays rapidly over the first 3–4 days, but a weak signature is still detected in surface observations 10–20 days later. The wet soil suppresses rainfall over the storm track for the first 2–8 days, depending on aridity regime. Whilst the negative SM feedback initially enhances mesoscale rainfall predictability, the transient nature of SM likely limits forecast skill on sub-seasonal time scales.